Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027.
Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening.
They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.
The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise.
Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts.
The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range.
This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets. Globally, the trends appear even more promising.
China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.
Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.
Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets.
Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity. There is also a political dimension to consider.
President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends. Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth.
Extended Bitcoin Uptrend Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory.
Related Reading: Trend Reversal Puts Dogecoin On A Path To $0.188 The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.
The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend.
Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
A stronger yen typically coincides with de-risking across macro portfolios, and that dynamic could tighten liquidity conditions that recently helped bitcoin rebound from November’s lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting a crucial support area after its price slid 5% from the recent highs and fell below the $90,000 barrier. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency’s structure remains intact, but warned that it must bounce quickly or risk retesting the November lows.
Related Reading: XRP ETFs Record 13-Day Streak As SOL Funds See Largest Outflows Since Launch Bitcoin Retests $88,000 After Rejection On Friday, Bitcoin lost the recently reclaimed $90,000 level, falling to a key support area before stabilizing.
The flagship crypto has been attempting to recover from the November market correction, which sent its price to a seven-month low of $80,600.
Since reaching its local lows two weeks ago, the cryptocurrency has traded within a macro re-accumulation range, between $82,000 and $93,500, attempting to break out of this zone on Wednesday, when it reached a multi-week high of $94,150.
However, as the first week of December approaches its end, BTC has lost the upper area of its local range again, falling below its monthly open and tapping the $88,000 support.
Amid the drop, Analyst Ted Pillows noted that BTC has been struggling to reclaim the $94,000 resistance, adding that price “wants to go lower here before another breakout attempt.” Therefore, he suggested that a bounce back from the $88,000-$89,000 support zone is likely.
Altcoin Sherpa affirmed that the ongoing retest would confirm whether the recent bounce was “just lower highs and price is going lower or if we actually have any juice to bounce to like 100k or something.” The analyst outlined two potential outcomes.
In the first scenario, the flagship crypto would retrace to the $87,000-$89,000 area and bounce above the $93,000-$94,000 resistance levels. In the second scenario, Bitcoin would continue to move sideways below the local resistance before eventually sliding to the November lows and potentially lower levels.
Per the analysis, the leading cryptocurrency must bottom quickly, or it will risk the second outcome. BTC Shows Shallowing Pullback Tendency Analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin continues to face rejection from the range high resistance.
However, he considers that investors should not worry as long as the pullback isn’t as big as the previous ones.
If “the rejection is shallower than the previous two, then this resistance will continue to weaken until eventually breached,” he explained, adding that “as long as this weakening continues, BTC should be able to finally breach this resistance over time & try to challenge the multi-week Downtrend above.” Earlier this week, the analyst affirmed that BTC’s consolidation structure will remain intact as long as Bitcoin closes the week above the range lows.
Strive CEO Matt Cole has urged the MSCI to “let the market decide” whether they want to include Bitcoin-holding companies in their passive investments.
Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent. Bitcoin Price Recovery At Risk?
Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.” This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline.
Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses.
Related Reading: XRP Price Predictions: AI Forecasts $4.40 By March 2026, Analysts Target Up To $6 Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year.
He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA.
If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook. BTC Bottom In Sight?
Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments.
He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms. Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish.
He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told attendees at Binance Blockchain Week that he believes the worst leg of the recent crypto slump is likely over and that markets may be ready for a gradual recovery. He pointed to weakening selling pressure and growing underlying activity as reasons for cautious optimism.
Related Reading: A New Era Begins: CFTC Approves Spot Bitcoin On Regulated US Markets Market Sentiment May Be Near A Turning Point According to Lee, mood on the street turned darker after October, with many investors showing fatigue after steady losses.
He said the current selling looks closer to exhaustion than to the start of another major decline. Trading desks have cut back. Volume has thinned. Sentiment is low. Lee argued that often, when pessimism peaks, conditions for a reversal begin to form.
Bitcoin Drawdowns Are Not Uncommon Based on reports, Bitcoin has fallen about 36% from its all-time high in the recent retreat. That size of drop has happened in prior cycles, including 2017 and 2021, and has been followed by rallies that reached new records. “Crypto prices likely bottomed.
The best years of growth are still ahead: there is 200x adoption to come.” – Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine pic.twitter.com/fPWbWdaosO — Binance (@binance) December 4, 2025 Lee pointed to long-term returns for bitcoin and ether compared with some traditional assets over the last decade, saying crypto’s gains were larger.
He used that history to support the idea that patient holders have been rewarded after past stress. Tokenization Could Be A Major Story In 2026 Lee also presented tokenization as a key theme for the future.
He said large institutions are preparing to move more financial products on-chain and that, if real estate joins the shift, close to a quadrillion dollars in assets could eventually be tokenized. Stablecoins were cited as an early example of why tokenized instruments can attract demand.
He suggested that a broader institutional push could add steady interest to the market over time.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Was Highlighted As A Signal Reports have disclosed that BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF has become one of the firm’s top fee-earning products, a fact Lee used to show growing involvement from legacy finance.
That kind of institutional participation, he argued, points to deeper engagement from big players who were previously on the sidelines.
Strategy CEO Phong Le said his firm raised 21 months of dividend runway in just eight days to head off investor unease.
The bank is owned by billionaire Andy Beal, a major supporter of U.S. President Donald Trump's 2016 campaign.
An analyst has pointed out where a key resistance could be located for Dogecoin, based on on-chain supply distribution data.
Dogecoin Has A Large Supply Cluster Present At $0.20 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where resistance lies for Dogecoin based on Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD).
The CBD is an indicator that tells us about the amount of DOGE supply that was last acquired at the various price levels that the memecoin has visited in its history.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Structure Echoes 2022 Bear Start, Glassnode Warns Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the recent CBD heatmap for Dogecoin. As is visible in the graph, the Dogecoin CBD has flagged the zone around $0.20 as one where investors did some heavy buying.
More specifically, over 11.7 billion tokens have their cost basis at this level. Considering that DOGE is trading notably under the mark right now, all this supply would naturally be in the red.
The asset rising to this level could cause a strong reaction from the investors, as these tokens will get back to their break-even. Generally, holders in loss can be desperate for the price to reach back to their cost basis.
Once the asset does rise to their acquisition level, some of these investors choose to sell, fearing that the rebound is only temporary. This can make large cost basis levels above the asset’s price potential zones of resistance.
Between the current price and $0.20, there aren’t any other regions in the CBD that are as dense with supply. Based on this, Martinez has noted, “$0.20 is the key resistance for Dogecoin.” It now remains to be seen whether DOGE will retest this level anytime soon.
In some other news, the memecoin has seen a spike in network activity recently, as the analyst has pointed out in another X post.
In the chart, the indicator shown is the Number of Active Addresses, which measures, as its name suggests, the daily number of addresses that are participating in some kind of transaction activity on the Dogecoin network.
It would appear that this indicator has registered a surge recently, with a peak 71,589 addresses making transfers on the blockchain. This is the largest spike that the metric has observed since September.
Related Reading: Ethereum Back At $3,200 As Sharks Show Strong Accumulation The trend suggests that attention has returned back to the Dogecoin network after a slump, but only time will tell whether this activity pertains to accumulation or distribution.
VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, has told clients it plans to let them buy and sell real cryptocurrencies through its brokerage service, with a target rollout in 2026 pending regulator approval.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Fails To Shake Ripple CEO — He Still Calls For $180K According to the bank, the move would go beyond the derivative products that most Russian banks have offered so far. It is a clear shift toward opening traditional finance to digital assets, at least for now among wealthy clients.
Client Eligibility And Timetable Reports have disclosed that VTB intends to begin with high-net-worth customers only. The bank set thresholds for its initial offering: clients with assets above $1.3 million or annual income over $649,000 would be eligible at first.
Andrey Yatskov, who heads VTB’s brokerage arm, said there is “sharp demand” from clients for access to actual crypto, not just paper products tied to token prices. The bank has picked 2026 as the planned start year, but it made that clear the launch depends on regulators signing off.
Real Crypto, Not Just Contracts Based on reports, the service would allow ownership of the underlying coins — not merely derivative contracts or token-linked notes. That is a significant distinction in Russia, where until recently banks were limited to offering exposure through derivative instruments.
Allowing customers to hold coins directly would require legal and compliance work, from custody arrangements to anti-money-laundering controls. Those steps are on the critical path before any retail expansion can happen.
Potential Market Signals VTB has also given investors a sense of how it views crypto as an asset class. The bank recommended a 7% allocation to crypto for some investor profiles, and its internal forecasts have mentioned medium-term Bitcoin price targets in the $200,000–$250,000 range under favorable conditions.
If VTB moves forward, it could be the first major Russian bank to operate in this way — a signal that some parts of the financial sector see token ownership as something to be offered through mainstream channels.
Related Reading: A New Era Begins: CFTC Approves Spot Bitcoin On Regulated US Markets Regulatory Hurdles And Geopolitics The plan is not risk free. Russian regulation of crypto is still evolving, and any permit to offer direct trading will require approval from the relevant authorities.
Need to know what happened in crypto today? Here is the latest news on daily trends and events impacting Bitcoin price, blockchain, DeFi, NFTs, Web3 and crypto regulation.
The Binance Blockchain Week event in Dubai became the center of a high-stakes showdown between traditional and digital innovation, with Bitcoin and gold going head-to-head.
Investors, tech enthusiasts, and financial experts watched closely as Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expertly debated renowned Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, making a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is better than gold.
Binance Founder Dominates Bitcoin And Gold Debate During the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Schiff and CZ faced off in a high-profile debate over the value of Bitcoin versus Gold.
Schiff defended gold as a safe, stable, and tangible asset while the Binance founder made a compelling case for Bitcoin’s adoption, utility, value, and global reach. Related Reading: Crypto CEO Says Bitcoin Was Never Meant To Be ‘Digital Gold’ – So What Is It?
Throughout the debate, which lasted over an hour, CZ consistently demonstrated the practical advantages of Bitcoin, leaving Schiff’s gold argument largely on the defensive. The Binance founder emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent and predictable supply and its role in the modern financial systems.
He pointed to hundreds of millions of users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, savings, and transfers. Schiff argued that Bitcoin lacks inherent value and is mainly driven by hype and faith that its price will rise.
He stated that gold remains tangible, centuries old, scarce, and valuable in industry, making it superior to BTC. He further asserted that “nobody needs” Bitcoin and that the cryptocurrency is “backed by nothing.” Practical demonstrations played a key role in the debate between Schiff and CZ.
The Binance founder explained how Bitcoin and crypto payments already improve financial efficiency, especially in emerging markets. Schiff questioned whether these transactions truly count as money, since merchants ultimately receive traditional currency.
CZ’s response highlighted the importance of adoption and network effects, noting that people who use BTC directly for payments give it real-world significance. The debate also considered the preferences of younger generations. CZ asked Schiff whether millennials and Gen Z favoured Bitcoin or gold.
The Bitcoin critic responded sharply, suggesting that they would choose gold. He pointed out that, with many young investors losing money on BTC, gold offers a safer, more appealing alternative.
Data from Binance points to shifting liquidity patterns and unique trader positioning that could influence the direction of Bitcoin’s next price move.
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James Butterfill counters claims about Tether’s solvency, pointing to a multibillion-dollar surplus despite new criticism from Arthur Hayes and S&P Global.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has issued one of the most forceful bottom calls of this cycle, assigning a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In a X thread on December 4, he wrote: “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in.
And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.” Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Deutscher bases his conviction on four “pillars”: market reaction to news, the historical behaviour of FUD events, a shift in flows, and an improving global liquidity backdrop.
Each pillar is scored in an internal model that culminates in a 91.5/100 bullish reading. He starts with price behaviour versus headlines.
Over recent days, he notes, the market has digested an “influx of bad news” – including renewed Tether FUD, another round of “China banning crypto,” MicroStrategy scrutiny and concerns around a Bank of Japan–driven yen carry trade unwind.
“Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” he writes, calling this “the first time since the major selloff began” that Bitcoin has responded positively to a destructive news cycle. He underscores an old trading adage: “The reaction to news is more important than the news itself.
This tells you everything you need to know.” Related Reading: US Sen. Lummis Hints At US Bitcoin Buy With ‘Franklin’ Meme The second pillar is a systematic look at whether such FUD clusters tend to coincide with local lows.
Deutscher says he backtested “every single time Tether, China, BOJ, and Microstrategy FUD entered the market” in a similar way. His conclusion is stark: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom. Tether FUD = bottom. China ‘banning’ crypto = bottom. Bank of Japan/carry trade concerns = bottom.
Microstrategy FUD = bottom.” On this basis, his AI model assigns the maximum score of 28/28 to this pillar.
He cautions that “in isolation, this factor doesn’t matter much,” but argues that, combined with the first pillar, it “starts to paint a convincing bull case.” The third pillar is flows, which he calls “the most critical factor (net buy/sell pressure).” For the past weeks, flows were “aggressively negative” with OG whales selling and ETFs dumping.
Recently, he argues, this picture has changed. ETF inflows are “starting to stabilise & uptick,” treasury-company holdings remain stable, and “OG whales have stopped relentlessly dumping (this is clear on the orderbooks).” This earns a 22.5/25 score in his model.
Bitcoin’s chance of hitting $100,000 before New Year’s Eve depends on investors’ reaction to the Fed policy pivot, and the market’s response to soaring BigTech and AI company debt.
Bitcoin miners face record margin pressure as proxy stocks sink, Kalshi lands $1B funding and Ether derivatives volumes overtake Bitcoin on CME.
The collaboration aims to bring more than 1,000 entertainment properties onchain and establish a new framework for funding and distributing media as real-world assets.
Bitcoin’s bounce evaporated as the weekly close approaches and traders say multiple risk-off metrics point to a high correction risk for BTC. Is $100,000 by the end of 2025 possible?
He also noted that its Macro Downtrend, which “has been dictating resistance throughout this phase of the cycle,” remains the dominant structural barrier and the level to break.
Related Reading: Solana Eyes Major Resistance After $140 Reclaim, But Analyst Questions SOL’s Strength As the price stabilized between the $88,500-$89,350 area, the analyst added that today’s retracement “continues to be a shallower pullback than the previous two,” which keeps the range “‘retrace shallowing’ tendency” intact.
He noted that Bitcoin could technically drop into the ascending two-week support trendline, or tap the $86,000 level and still perform a shallower correction than the recent 10% drop. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,400, a 2.9% decline in the daily timeframe.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Related Reading: Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Goes Live Today: Experts Predict Potential Supply Crunch Ahead Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months.
The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers.
Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Fails To Shake Ripple CEO — He Still Calls For $180K Adoption Gap Suggests Large Upside According to Lee, only 4.4 million bitcoin wallets hold more than $10,000 in BTC, while nearly 900 million people globally have more than $10,000 in retirement savings.
He said that gap shows how early the market still is and argued that if just a fraction of those savers put money into bitcoin, adoption could expand by as much as 200 times. The figure is speculative, he acknowledged, but he used it to show the potential scale for future demand.
What This Means For Investors Now Lee questioned whether the old four-year cycle should be used as a strict guide. He suggested recent moves were driven more by de-leveraging and structural shifts than by the halving rhythm that shaped earlier cycles. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.138, down over 7% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Sanctions and other geopolitical pressures could alter timelines or force changes to how the service is structured. Compliance teams will need to reconcile domestic rules with international restrictions that affect many big banks operating in or dealing with Russia. For now, the rollout remains conditional.
VTB’s timeline, client criteria, and product design all hinge on legal clarifications and regulator consent. Market participants and clients will likely follow announcements from the Bank of Russia and other agencies to judge how soon broader access might come. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
The Binance founder countered that younger people understand digital value more intuitively and prefer mobile, borderless, and censorship-resistant assets. Digital Value And The Future Of Money The debate between CZ and Schiff also highlighted the changing definition of money.
Bitcoin functions as a decentralized network that enables instant settlement and transparent verification. Its adoption has also helped evolve the financial economy, facilitating faster and more seamless cross-border payments.
Schiff argued that gold’s scarcity and industrial demand preserve its value and make it a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty. Related Reading: What Happens To The Bitcoin Price If It Follows Gold?
Tokenization also became a point of agreement during the discussion, with Schiff emphasizing that gold can be digitized and tokenized for easier ownership and distribution without moving the physical metal. CZ contended that Bitcoin offers similar advantages while also enabling global financial inclusion.
They also discussed the supply of both assets, with the Binance founder noting that Bitcoin has a visible supply, while gold doesn’t. They also talked about the performance of both assets over the years. Schiff argued that gold had outperformed BTC over the past four years.
CZ contended that Bitcoin has far outpaced gold over the last 8 years, and since its launch in 2009, it has skyrocketed from a few cents to an ATH above $126,000. He concluded his debate, predicting that Bitcoin’s growth will outpace gold over time. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
He adds one key caveat: as long as DATs exist, “there are material risks.” Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Traders Fear A Repeat Of July 2024’s Crash Next Week The fourth pillar is the liquidity and macro environment.
Deutscher notes that market liquidity had been tightening for months, but now “things are shifting back toward increased market liquidity,” with global financial conditions “reloosened to near highs.” He highlights “macro tailwinds” and adds that a new, potentially more dovish Fed chair is coming and “QT has now officially ended.” This set of factors receives a 9/10 score in his framework.
Aggregating all four pillars leads to the headline figure: “With all four market pillars taken into account, we arrive at a final score of 91.5/100.” Deutscher, however, explicitly lists caveats.
He points out that US markets “have been on a massive run” and may need to cool off, that DATs “are still seeing some short-term pressure,” and that ETF flows “can flip negative at any time.” His conclusion is probabilistic rather than absolute: “Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favour of the bottom being in – given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,035.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
